• Jean-Manuel Toussaint

Covid19 situation as of April 06, 2020

The #mortality rate among #diagnosed+ #population is now 12.32% in #Italy. #France (now includes deaths in hospitals and rest homes), The #UK, #Spain, The #Netherlands, and #Belgium come after.


The number of #cases has been decreasing in #Italy, from March 22, 2020. In Spain and France, the decrease of cases started around April 01, 2020.



#Confinement measures have a positive effect on #Italy and #Spain where the number of deaths is decreasing. The increase is still strong in France and the UK whereas a sligth decline is observed in Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland.


Whereas #Italian curve is moving downward, #Spanish line is now just above Italy. The #France and #Belgium are now ahead of the #Netherlands. #Switzerland is at the same level as the UK. Despite the absence of #confinement #measures #Sweden curve still has the same profile as the other #EU #countries.

The situation in #Belgium is very close to the one in #Spain. #Deaths per inhabitants in the #UK increased strongly over the past days and are now at the same level as in Italy. At this time, #US curve profile looks like the #French / #Switzerland curve.

The gap between #SouthKorea and the other countries gets bigger and bigger. #Gettested #Wearamask.


As per our previous article, the number of #deaths should continue to #decrease in the coming days in Italy.



#Spain is probably at the peak of the #epidemic, as the growth of diagnosed+ cases seems to speed down.


In #France, the number of deaths in hospital should start to decrease in the coming days (read this). We see the #peak of the epidemic before April the 14th, 2020

The #UK growth is still strong in new diagnosed+ cases and new deaths. With a time gap of +15 days (read this) vs Italy, the peak of deaths per day should be around April 18th, 2020.


#USA started the increasing phase. The country could have 40,000 total deaths by the end of next week (April 17th, 2020).



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