• Jean-Manuel Toussaint

Covid19 Mortality as of March 25, 2020

Updated: Apr 2

Daily #deaths diagram seem to cap in #Italy, one month after the first #death. To be confirmed on March 28, 2020. In #Spain, the trend is worrying and daily deaths should overtake #Italian numbers in the coming days.

Covid19 new deaths every 3 days

The #mortality rate among positively #Covid+ #population is still the highest in #Italy (9.86%). Then we have #Iran, #Spain, the #UK and #France (#Netherlands, very close). There are now more than 400,000 Covid+ in the #world. The average mortality rate is 4.45% among #diagnosed people.

Covid19 Mortality rate estimates among diagnosed+ population, March 25, 2020

The highest the population number, the highest the total deaths. With the population #standardization (STD), we avoid the population number effect. Italy is still the first #country in term of death rate per #inhabitant with a slowing #growth (+20% per day). #Spain should reach Italian level in the coming days with a growth >33% per day.

#USA, #Germany and South #Korea curves will cross #China line very soon.

Covid19 death rate standardized by the total population

As the vast majority of deaths concern the #Elderly people (>80%), we standardized deaths number by people aged 65 and over in each of the countries below. We positionned countries day0 when deaths number overtook 10 and our rate >0.0003% so the data and the #intensity of the mortality progression can be compared.

At day 5, the situation seems to be the worst in #Belgium, with the strongest #increase in the early days.

At day 13, France standardized death rate is 4 times higher than in South Korea, but 1.5 times less than in Italy, and 2 times less than in Spain.

Covid19 Total Death Rate standardized by elderly population



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