• Jean-Manuel Toussaint

Covid19 Mortality as of March 17, 2020

Updated: Apr 2, 2020

IHMT used the #WHO data to produce the #analysis below.

The first graph shows the #mortality rate among #Covid19 diagnosed population. Even if methods vary from a country to another, diagnosed people may mostly concern #patients with #fever or other #symptoms. Mortality among this diagnosed #population is particularly high in Italy (8.95%), more than twice as much as in China (3.98%). The situation in Iran - the second country in mortality rate (5.69%) - is probably underestimated. UK which didn't take any confinement measures is now the 4th highest death rate.

Covid19 Mortality rate estimates among diagnosed population (March 17, 2020, 10am CET)

The second analysis shows #standardized death rate among population over 65 years old. Elderly data was collected from the world bank. #Age standardized data allows to remove the effect of the age on the number of #deaths : As #Covid19 mainly affects #elderlies, it is logical to have more deaths in a country you have a high percentage of elderlies.

So if we remove the age effect, the graph shows that the spread and the deaths impact of the #virus are now higher in #Italy, #Spain and Iran than it is in #China and South Korea.

#France, #Switzerland, #Netherlands and the #UK should overtake China and South Korea data in the next few days. UK progression is impressive - and should reach France, Switzerland and Netherlands numbers very soon. South Korea and China curves are now flat.

Covid19 Standardized Death Rate (March 17, 2020)

Finally the last analysis highlights the number of deaths per diem. The epidemic is the most agressive in Italy and Iran. The pick has not been yet reached but could be reached around March 24. UK which started the epidemic one week later than France, has now the same daily death numbers as France and Spain. Very soon, UK may possibly be the third countries in terms of deaths number per diem.

Covid-19 New Deaths per Day (March 17, 2020)

#Covid19 #Coronavirus #Infection #Pandemic #Epidemic #Mortality #Death #Diagnosis #Diagnosed #Estimates #WHO #Data #IHMT

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